Dengue Epidemic Analysis and Health Impact Consultancy 2024

Post of Duty: Brazil

The IDB Group is a community of diverse, versatile and passionate people, united to improve lives in Latin America and the Caribbean. Those who work with us find purpose and do what they love most in an inclusive, collaborative, agile and rewarding environment.

The IDB's Social Protection and Health Division (SPH) has a multidisciplinary team convinced that investing in people is the way to improve lives and overcome the development challenges of Latin America and the Caribbean. In this sense, its goal is to promote the social inclusion of people who live in situations of poverty and vulnerability, as well as to support minimum consumption levels of the population in extreme poverty through schemes that favor the development of the capacities of this group.

About this job:

The Social Protection and Health Division (SCL/SPH) of the IDB is seeking a consultant to conduct an analysis of the 2024 dengue epidemic in Brazil, with a focus on its impact on health system outcomes and health spending, as well as on strategies that can be implemented to mitigate the impact of future dengue epidemics.

This is what you will do:

The activities that the selected candidate will perform include, but are not limited to, the following:

1. Review selected IDB publications (e.g., Going Beyond Normal: COVID-19 and Healthcare in LAC) and other knowledge products (e.g., zika crowdsourcing initiative).
2. Gather and analyze data on the 2024 dengue epidemic in Brazil, including infection rates and mortality rates (if available, by age, gender, race, and ethnicity). Compare the data across municipalities and states to identify areas that were more successful or less successful at managing the epidemic. Compare the 2024 data with previous years (if possible, with the 10 previous years) to assess any significant changes or trends due to the epidemic.
3. Analyze the distribution and prevalence of dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4) in Brazil during the 2024 epidemic by reviewing epidemiological surveillance data. Collaborate with national institutions, such as the Ministry of Health and Fiocruz, to assess the relationship between serotypes and key variables like deaths, hospitalizations, and ambulatory visits. Where possible, extend the analysis to previous years for comparative purposes and consider geographic, socioeconomic, and demographic factors.
4. Evaluate the impact of the epidemic on the health system intermediate outcomes, such as hospital admissions, bed occupancy rates, and healthcare workforce strain. If possible, analyze the impact of the epidemic on the provision of routine health services (e.g., vaccinations, cancer screening, non-urgent treatments). The list of outcomes should be discussed and agreed upon with the IDB team. Compare the data across different states and municipalities. Compare the 2024 data with previous years (if possible, with the 10 previous years) to assess any significant changes or trends due to the epidemic.
5. Analyze the financial impact of the dengue epidemic on public and private health spending, including emergency response costs, treatment expenditures, preventative measures, and out-of-pocket spending (if available). Compare the data across different states and municipalities. Compare the 2024 spending with previous years (if possible, with the 10 previous years) to assess any significant changes or trends due to the epidemic.
6. Assess the broader economic impact of the dengue epidemic on society, particularly in terms of lost productivity due to illness, absenteeism from work or school, and long-term disability caused by severe cases. This analysis should consider both direct (e.g., days of work missed) and indirect (e.g., economic consequences for households and employers) costs. Where possible, compare these figures across different regions and demographic groups and evaluate trends in economic losses over time, particularly in relation to previous epidemics.
7. Conduct interviews and consultations with key stakeholders, including government health officials at the national level, from different states and municipalities, as well as and hospital managers, public health experts, and international organizations, to gather insights and perspectives on the epidemic response. Facilitate workshops or focus groups to discuss lessons learned and identify gaps in the current dengue response strategies (e.g., limited testing capacity, insufficient personnel). Some of these sessions should focus on states and municipalities that were more and less successful in managing the epidemic, to explore variations in organization, resource allocation, costs, outputs, and outcomes, with the goal of identifying positive outliers whose performance can be studied and shared.
8. Review and document best practices in dengue management from Brazil and other comparable nations, as well as from different states and municipalities within Brazil. Analyze the effectiveness of interventions such as surveillance systems, vector control programs, public awareness campaigns, and vaccination efforts (if applicable), by reviewing and analyzing existing systematic reviews. Describe the current state in the country and selected states and municipalities and identify critical gaps. Particular attention should be given to surveillance systems. Assess the differences in outcomes across states and municipalities, and identify key lessons learned from both successful and less successful experiences.
9. Develop actionable recommendations for improving the country’s preparedness and response to future dengue epidemics, including early warning systems and community engagement initiatives. Recommendations should be tailored to different contexts (e.g., urban vs. rural, wealthy vs. less wealthy states and municipalities). To the extent possible, estimate the costs of key interventions, such as upgrading the existing surveillance system.
10. Prepare a comprehensive report summarizing the findings, analysis, and recommendations. Present the findings and recommendations to the Social Protection and Health Division (SCL/SPH) of the IDB and relevant country stakeholders.